COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died;the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98–57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60–20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35–2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11–2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59–3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20–4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26–5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90–12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

SARS-CoV-2 induced B cells generate an anticipatory memory against new virus variants and re-engage in COVID-19 vaccine responses (preprint)

During the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) evolved, many of which escape from antibody responses. Vaccination of COVID-19 convalescent individuals induces antibody responses of superior quantity and quality, which may even neutralize new VOC. We analyzed memory B cells (MBC) from convalescent donors and studied their involvement in COVID-19 vaccine responses. By expressing monoclonal antibodies from immunoglobulin V(D)J sequences of MBC and reverting their somatic hypermutations (SHM) to germline codes, we found that antibody maturation is crucial for the cross-neutralization of VOC. Infection-induced MBC substantially contributed to the subsequent vaccine response. A few dominant clonotypes that used characteristic VH gene segments and that diversified through SHM constituted a large fraction of the responding B cells. Analysis of functional consequences revealed that certain SHM contribute to the formation of an anticipatory memory that is suitable to neutralize virus variants that might emerge in the future.

Emissions of black carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Potential implications of cultural practices during the Covid-19 pandemic

Emissions of black carbon (BC) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from various anthropogenic activities are often reported, yet cultural practices such as the multi-day Diwali festival and its influences on the emissions of these compounds are often overlooked. Major activities during this festival include burning rows of oil-filled earthen lamps (diyas) and fireworks (bursting of crackers). A comprehensive field investigation was conducted to document the role of Diwali celebrations on the releases of BC and PAHs during the ongoing Covid pandemic. The results show that large-scale releases of BC and PAHs were observed on the first day of Diwali compared to the remaining four days. BC and PM2.5 mass concentrations throughout the monitoring period ranged from 3.24 to 27.64 µg m−3 and 83.33 to 288.13 µg m−3, respectively. The source apportionment was performed based on the calculated backward trajectories. The results show that the contribution of fossil fuel emission at Adityapur (ADP), Sakchi (SAK), and Gamharia (GMA) was approximately 36.1 %, 34.4 %, and 55.56 %, while biomass burning contribution was approx. 56.9 %, 59.9 %, 41.67 %, respectively. The result showed that fossil fuel emissions were lower compared to biomass combustion during Diwali. Simultaneously, PAHs diagnostic ratio showed that vehicular discharge and coal burning significantly contributed to PAHs at these study sites. © 2022 The Author(s)

Job insecurity and mental health related outcomes among the humanitarian workers during COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 remains a public health burden that has caused global economic crises, jeopardizing health, jobs, and livelihoods of millions of people around the globe. Several efforts have been made by several countries by implementing several health strategies to attenuate the spread of the pandemic. Although several studies indicated effects of COVID-19 on mental health and its associated factors, very little is known about the underlying mechanism of job insecurity, depression, anxiety, and stress in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study determined the prevalence of job insecurity and depression, anxiety, stress as well as the association between job insecurity, mental health outcomes also contributing determinants amongst humanitarian workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a web-based cross-sectional study among 445 humanitarian workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in six sub-districts of Cox's bazar district of Bangladesh between April and May 2021. The questionnaire was composed of socio-demographic, lifestyle and work related factors. Psychometric instruments like job insecurity scale and depression, anxiety also stress scale (DASS-21) were employed to assess the level of job insecurity and mental health outcomes (depression, anxiety and stress). STATA software version 14 was employed to perform statistical analyses. RESULTS: The prevalence of job insecurity was 42%. The odds of job insecurity was higher in Kutubdia and Pekua (AOR = 3.1, 95% CI 1.36, 7.22) Teknaf (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.33, 6.41), the impact of dissatisfaction on salary (AOR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.49, 3.58) was evident with job insecurity. The prevalence of moderate to severe depression, anxiety and stress among humanitarian worker were (26%, 7%), (25%, 10%) and (15%, 7%) respectively. Further, the region of work, being female, marital status, work environment, and salary dissatisfaction were contributing factors for poor mental health outcomes. Those with job insecurity were almost 3 times more likely to experience depression (AOR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.85, 4.04), anxiety (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.76, 3.71) and stress (AOR: 2.8; 95% CI 1.89, 4.26), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight that job security remains essential to help tackle the severity of depression, anxiety and stress in humanitarian workers. The results reflected the critical importance of local and international NGOs addressing poor mental health conditions of their employees to prevent mental health outbreaks.

Assessment of anxiety and depression, and coping mechanisms during COVID-19 lockdown among pregnant women.

Background: COVID-19 lockdown was associated with disruption of daily life, economy, essential health services including maternal health service, and psychological reflexes such as panic, sleep disorders, fear, anxiety, and depression. Aim: To assess the perception of pregnant women on the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and the prevalence of common mental health disorders (CMHD) among pregnant women. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 380 pregnant women at the University College Hospital (UCH) Ibadan; participants were enrolled using a simple random sampling technique. Data was collected using pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire. Information obtained - sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics, perception and reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, effect on ANC, coping mechanisms, and presence of CMHD (anxiety and depression) were measured using Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data were analysed using STATA 16.0 Software. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were performed. The level of significance was p-value < 0.05. Results: The mean age was 32 ± 4.78 years, most respondents were <35 years (75%), married (97.1%), had a higher education (89%) and multiparous (70%). About 43.9% were worried that COVID-19 would affect pregnancy care, 42.9% reported it affected care and 81.6% were not worried it would affect the delivery care. Among respondents, 96.6% were able to cope with the effects of the pandemic and 96.8% enjoyed good social support. Respondents did not have CMHD (88.16%), 7.9% had CMHD (4.74% had depression and 3.16% had anxiety) and 3.95% had co-morbid depression and anxiety. On multinomial regression analysis, relative to anxiety or depression only, respondents with combined depression and anxiety had higher odds of having no delivery plan and thought COVID-19 may affect their delivery. Conclusion: Only a few women reported anxiety and depression symptoms during the lockdown and those with anxiety or combined symptoms of anxiety and depression had no birth plan and believed that COVID-19 would affect their delivery.

Emissions of black carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Potential implications of cultural practices during the Covid-19 pandemic

Emissions of black carbon (BC) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from various anthropogenic activities are often reported, yet cultural practices such as the multi-day Diwali festival and its influences on the emissions of these compounds are often overlooked. Major activities during this festival include burning rows of oil-filled earthen lamps (diyas) and fireworks (bursting of crackers). A comprehensive field investigation was conducted to document the role of Diwali celebrations on the releases of BC and PAHs during the ongoing Covid pandemic. The results show that large-scale releases of BC and PAHs were observed on the first day of Diwali compared to the remaining four days. BC and PM2.5 mass concentrations throughout the monitoring period ranged from 3.24 to 27.64 µg m-3 and 83.33 to 288.13 µg m-3, respectively. The source apportionment was performed based on the calculated backward trajectories. The results show that the contribution of fossil fuel emission at Adityapur (ADP), Sakchi (SAK), and Gamharia (GMA) was approximately 36.1%, 34.4%, and 55.56%, while biomass burning contribution was approx. 56.9%, 59.9%, 41.67%, respectively. The result showed that fossil fuel emissions were lower compared to biomass combustion during Diwali. Simultaneously, PAHs diagnostic ratio showed that vehicular discharge and coal burning significantly contributed to PAHs at these study sites.

Assessment of anxiety and depression, and coping mechanisms during COVID-19 lockdown among pregnant women

Background COVID-19 lockdown was associated with disruption of daily life, economy, essential health services including maternal health service, and psychological reflexes such as panic, sleep disorders, fear, anxiety, and depression. Aim To assess the perception of pregnant women on the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and the prevalence of common mental health disorders (CMHD) among pregnant women. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 380 pregnant women at the University College Hospital (UCH) Ibadan;participants were enrolled using a simple random sampling technique. Data was collected using pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire. Information obtained – sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics, perception and reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, effect on ANC, coping mechanisms, and presence of CMHD (anxiety and depression) were measured using Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data were analysed using STATA 16.0 Software. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were performed. The level of significance was p-value < 0.05. Results The mean age was 32 ± 4.78 years, most respondents were <35 years (75%), married (97.1%), had a higher education (89%) and multiparous (70%). About 43.9% were worried that COVID-19 would affect pregnancy care, 42.9% reported it affected care and 81.6% were not worried it would affect the delivery care. Among respondents, 96.6% were able to cope with the effects of the pandemic and 96.8% enjoyed good social support. Respondents did not have CMHD (88.16%), 7.9% had CMHD (4.74% had depression and 3.16% had anxiety) and 3.95% had co-morbid depression and anxiety. On multinomial regression analysis, relative to anxiety or depression only, respondents with combined depression and anxiety had higher odds of having no delivery plan and thought COVID-19 may affect their delivery. Conclusion Only a few women reported anxiety and depression symptoms during the lockdown and those with anxiety or combined symptoms of anxiety and depression had no birth plan and believed that COVID-19 would affect their delivery. COVID-19;Coronavirus;COVID-19 mental health;Common mental disorders;Mental health.

COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

Utilization of Postnatal Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perception and Intents of Postpartum Women at Tertiary Health Facility in Southwest, Nigeria.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic took the world unawares and disrupted maternal health care services. This study assessed postnatal care (PNC) utilization, perception, and intent of postpartum women to use PNC. This was a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic over a 2-months period. Inclusion criteria-consenting women, aged ≥18years, and delivery at the study site; 115 women were selected by simple random sampling technique. The information included sociodemographic, obstetric characteristics, perceived effects of COVID-19 on maternal healthcare, and willingness to return for PNC using pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaires. The maternal healthcare register was also reviewed for the proportion of women accessing services before and during the pandemic. Data were analyzed using IBM Statistical Package and Service Solutions (SPSS) Version 23. The total No. of deliveries and PNC attendance/month was reduced. Respondents were multiparous women (61.7%), with no pregnancy complication (73.9%). About 93% were counseled on PNC; while only 47.8% of the respondents had good knowledge of PNC. The pandemic affected antenatal care in 25.2%, 7.8% perceived it would affect PNC, 62.6% perceived themselves at risk of COVID-19; 13.9% had fears of coming for PNC. Despite this, more than 75% were willing to come for PNC. COVID-19 affected the use of maternal healthcare. Counseling on the role and benefits of PNC can improve its use.

Appendicitis and COVID: cause or effect?

Background: Vasculitis and phlebitis with vascular occlusion within appendix specimen is rare. Several authors have reported COVID-19 related veno-occlusive disease in hepatic pathology, but lymphoid aggregation with phlebitis is unusual in appendix specimen. We present a case with medium size venule phlebitis in an appendix of a patient recovered from COVID-19 infection. Case presentation: A 27-year-old who recently recovered from COVID-19 infection 12 weeks prior, presented with acute appendicitis, confirmed on computed tomography and operative findings. He underwent an uneventful laparoscopic appendicectomy. Histopathology showed veno-occlusive vasculitis within the appendix specimen. Conclusions: Veno-occlusive disease within the appendix is uncommon. Emerging data suggest COVID-19 infection can cause systemic vascular complications. We herein report a case of healthy patient with no past medical history with an unusual findings of medium vessels phlebitis within the appendix post COVID-19 infection.

Documenting response to COVID-individual and systems successes and challenges: a longitudinal qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to document the evolution of perceptions of frontline healthcare workers (FHCW) regarding their well-being and the quality of health systems' response to the COVID-19 pandemic over four months in Pakistan. METHODS: We conducted this prospective longitudinal qualitative study during the four months (June-September 2020) coinciding with the peak and trough of the first wave of Pakistan's COVID-19 pandemic. We approached frontline healthcare workers (physicians and nurses) working in emergency departments (ED) in two hospitals using the WhatsApp group of the Pakistan Society of Emergency Physicians (PSEM). Participants were asked to self-record their perception of their wellness and their level of satisfaction with the quality of their hospitals' response to the pandemic. We transcribed, translated, and analysed manually using MAXQDA 2020 software and conducted the thematic analysis to identify themes and sub-themes. RESULTS: We invited approximately 200 FHCWs associated with PSEM to participate in the study. Of the 61 who agreed to participate, 27 completed the study. A total of 149 audio recordings were received and transcribed. Three themes and eight sub-themes have emerged from the data. The themes were individual-level challenges, health system-level challenges, and hope for the future. Sub-themes for individual-level challenges were: fear of getting or transmitting infection, feeling demotivated and unappreciated, disappointment due to people's lack of compliance with COVID-19 protocols, physical exhaustion, and fatigue. For the healthcare system, sub-themes were: Infrastructure, logistics, management, and communications response of the hospital/healthcare system and financial stressors. For sub-themes under hope for the future were the improved disease knowledge and vaccine development. The overall perceptions and experiences of FHCWs evolved from fear, grief, and negativity to hope and positivity as the curve of COVID-19 went down. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the individuals and systems were not prepared to deal with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings highlight the challenges faced by individuals and health systems during the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The healthcare workers were emotionally and physically taxed, while the health systems were overwhelmed by COVID-19. The overall perceptions of FHCWs evolved with time and became negative to positive as the curve of COVID-19 went down during the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan.

Length of Hospital Stay of COVID-19 Patients managed at the Lagos State Isolation Centres during the First Wave of the Pandemic

BACKGROUND: Lagos State has the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. We assessed the factors predicting the length of hospital stay of COVID-19 patients admitted in 15 isolation centres across the state. METHODS: We reviewed the electronic medical records of all COVID-19 patients admitted and discharged between February 27, 2020, and September 30, 2020. Logistic and linear regressions were used to assess factors predicting the length of hospital stay. RESULTS: A total of 3153 records were reviewed, of which 2623 (83.2%) met the inclusion criteria. The mean age of patients admitted was 40.5 (Sd 14.8) years. The age range was four days-97 years. A total of 1258 (48.0%) were symptomatic, while 2056 (78.4%) and 567 (21.6%) presented with mild and severe disease, respectively. Cough (22.0%), fever (17.3%) and breathlessness (12.3%) were the most common symptoms at presentation. Generally, the median length of hospital stay was 11 (IQR 9, 14) days. A total of 1609 (61.3%) had a prolonged length of hospital stay. The odds for prolonged hospital stay was higher among elderly patients (AOR 12.1 95%CI 7.6-19.4, p<0.001), male (AOR 1.2 95%CI 1.0-1.4, p=0.031) and patients with severe disease (AOR 1.3 95% CI 1.0-1.7, p=0.042). Age, hypertension and shortness of breath made the most significant contribution to predicting the length of hospital stay (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Age, gender, hypertension and breathlessness predicted the length of hospital stay. Proactive measures should be instituted in managing COVID-19 patients.

Epidemiological and outcome analysis of COVID-19-associated pneumothorax: multicentre retrospective critical care experience from Qatar.

OBJECTIVES: To study the incidence, characteristics, treatment, associated risk factors and outcome of COVID-19-associated pneumothorax in intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Retrospective observational data review. SETTING: A multicentre study from ICUs of three tertiary care hospitals in Qatar. PARTICIPANTS: 1788 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring ICU admission from 1 March 2020 to 1 November 2020 were enrolled in this study. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary endpoint was to identify the incidence of COVID-19-associated pneumothorax in patients requiring ICU admission. Secondary endpoints were to determine the associated risk factors, treatment, mortality and morbidity. RESULTS: 1788 patients from 3 centres were reviewed in the study. The total episodes of pneumothorax were 75. Pneumothorax occurred in 4.2% of the patients with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring ICU admission. The majority of the subjects were male (n=72, 96%). The mean age was 55.1 (±12.7 years). The majority of the subjects were nationals of South Asian countries and the Middle East and North Africa regions. 52% (n=39) of the patients were previously healthy without comorbidities before ICU admission. The recurrence rate was 9.3%. The median length of ICU stay was 28 days (20.5-45.8 days). After developing pneumothorax, the length of mechanical ventilation ranged from 6 to 32 days, with a median of 13 days. 44% of patients eventually ended up with tracheostomy. In-hospital mortality in the patients with COVID-19-related pneumothorax was 53.3% (n=40). The odds of mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia with pneumothorax is 7.15 (95% CI 4.45 to 11.48, p<0.0001) compared with those who did not develop pneumothorax. This indicates pneumothorax is a potential independent risk factor associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumothorax is a common complication in patients with COVID-19 requiring ICU admission, associated with poor prognosis and outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study was approved by the Medical Research Centre (MRC) Qatar. (MRC-01-20-1116).

Determinants of correct knowledge of coronavirus infection and COVID-19 disease pandemic among pregnant women in South-West Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: As the spread of COVID-19 continues, the disease and its sequels affect antenatal, intrapartum and post-partum care, thus making pregnant women and their babies vulnerable. This study assessed the knowledge of COVID-19 disease and determinants of correct knowledge among pregnant women at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant women. Data collected were analysed with STATA 16.0 software. Descriptive, bivariate and multinomial regression analyses were performed. The primary outcomes were awareness of COVID-19 (yes/no), correct knowledge, and determinants. RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty participants were interviewed. The mean age was 32 years (±4.78). A little over a third (37%) were aged 30-34 years, married (97.1%), Yoruba (86.6%), had tertiary education (89.0), in skilled occupation (54.6%) and not well-exposed to media (56.7%). The knowledge of COVID-19 was good (15%), fair (79%), and poor (6%). About 19.6%, 66.7% and 13.7% of participants who had poor, fair and good knowledge, respectively, believed that COVID-19 exists (P = 0.007). The factors associated with good knowledge include occupation, income, level of education and exposure to media (P value <0.05). On multinomial logistic regression, occupation was significantly associated with good knowledge, while being less exposed to media was significantly associated with having poor knowledge. CONCLUSION: Pregnant women had fair knowledge of COVID-19 disease; occupation, level of education, exposure to media and income are associated with having correct knowledge. Misinformation and misconception about COVID-19 disease may affect maternal health utilization and pregnancy outcomes. Antenatal care presents an opportunity to provide health education and increase the knowledge of COVID-19 among pregnant women.

Fish Availability and Market Channel in Rajbari, Bangladesh: A Case Study in Sadar Sub-District Markets (preprint)

The study of fisheries marketing channel and market margins is a useful tool for market management and a crucial system for creating an effective and well-planned marketing strategy. The aim of the research is to know about the fish marketing channel, marketing margins, fish availability and difficulties related fish marketing system in three fish markets of Rajbari, Bangladesh from June to December 2019. Here, data were collected through questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions and field visits. A total of 109 species of fish and shellfish were available in the fish market. Perciformes (28.97% of total fishes) were the most dominant followed by Cypriniformes (23.37%), Siluriformes (19.63%), Clupeiformes (7.48%) and Decapoda (7.48%). A total of 19 species of processed fish were available including dried (77.77% of total processed fishes), salted (16.67%) and fermented (5.56%) that arrived from Dhaka and Chattogram. The price of fish and processed fish depends on consumer demand, availability, season, storage facilities and marketing channel. The length of marketing channel of freshwater fishes was comparatively shorter such: fisherman or farmer – auctioneer – wholesaler – retailer – consumer. Marine fishes arrived from other places like Khulna, Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar, Jashore, Barishal, Chandpur, Bhola where supplier purchased those fishes through auctioneer and supply to other cities where retailer bought fishes through wholesaler and delivery to consumer. The market channel of processed fishes was the longest. However, the market margin of marine fishes is comparatively higher than freshwater fishes. The unplanned market location (P.I = 0.80) was major constraints followed by insufficient drainage system, low supply of fish for Covid-19 pandemic, high transportation cost, and traditional fish transportation system. This research, therefore, would suggest that modern equipped fish market with high quality cold storage and ice factories could help to maintain the better quality of fish and reduce economic losses.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Incidence Rate of COVID-19 Mortality and its Associated Factors During the First and Second Waves in Nigeria: A Retrospective Cohort Study (preprint)

Background: COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. We therefore aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the national surveillance database between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome was deaths amongst persons with a laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19. Incidence rates of COVID-19 death per 100,000 person-days were estimated. Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 death, and presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of deaths related to COVID-19 was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of death in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)].Interpretation: The incidence rate of COVID-19 death in Nigeria was higher in the first wave, suggesting improved public health response and care during the second wave. Regional mortality differences suggest that policy makers focus on regional equity in access to testing and quality of care to mitigate the impact of another COVID-19 wave in Nigeria.Funding: None to declare. Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: Ethical approval for the study was given by the Nigeria National Health Research Ethics Committee (NHREC/01/01/2007-22/06/2020).

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.